Urbanization in Pakistan

ABSTRACT

The research reported in this thesis was on “Urbanization and Determinants of Urbanization in Pakistan” The main purpose of the research was to study the factors and determinants of urbanization causing the problem of urbanization in Pakistan. The secondary data was collected by referring to the literature available in the libraries and the internet. Primary data was collected by floating a questionnaire among the general public asking questions regarding the problem of Urbanization in Pakistan. Moreover, interviews were taken to get a better understanding of the research subject. SPSS software was applied to analyze the data collected from the questionnaire for frequencies and cross tabulations were run to interpret the data by using the principles of Statistics. The findings suggested that migration, net-reclassification and net natural increase were the major factors causing urbanization in Pakistan. Trend of Urbanization in Pakistan have been increasing over the past years due to an increase in the migration rate, mergers of small towns into big cities and an excess of birth rates of death rates which causes population increase and an increase in the living population of the big cities. It was suggested that government should make proper plans and policies to avoid this problem of Urbanization as for a developing nation Urbanization can become a serious problem.

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CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Overview of the Topic

Urbanization is the expansion of cities by the rise in total number of population. Urbanization is caused by the social, economic & demographic aspects, which include internal migration, mergers of adjoining areas in the city and by the excess of birth rates over death rates. Internal migration is caused due to the attractive opportunities city life has to offer to the rural people along with better living standards and better wages. Migration cannot be controlled as by the law every citizen of the country is free to move and live where ever he wants. Second important factor causing urbanization is net reclassification that is, mergers of adjoining towns and villages into big cities. Cities of Pakistan have expanded in terms of their size and population over the past 50 years. This merger allows small towns and villages to excel and enjoy the facilities of city life but in return it brings a negative impact on the quality of essential public services such as law and order, health, education, water energy supplies etc. as they earlier had been designed according to the population living within the city boundaries. This factor leads to un-regulated expansion of urban areas which cause social, economic and administrative problems. Third major factor causing urbanization is the net natural increase, increase in birth rates over death rates. Advancement in medicine and health technology leads to an increase in the life span of an average person and reduces the infant mortality rate, which brings a rise in the population if the country. According to the 1998 census, in Pakistan level of urbanization has grown from 17.5% in 1951 to 32.5% in 1998. The trend of urbanization is increasing over the past years in Pakistan. Now in Pakistan rural population is moving towards big cities due to the decreasing dependency rate on the agricultural sector. Females from the rural areas also are moving towards the big cities to get work in the informal sector. Lack of basic necessities such as, food, energy, education and health in the rural areas of Pakistan force people to shift to big cities bringing an effect on the economy in a negative way. Lack of improper city boundaries also allow adjoining slums and small towns to merge in with the big cities causing Urbanization in Pakistan. Small and medium sized cities of Pakistan are growing at a higher rate and are serving as hubs of business and trade. Growth in commerce and industry and better cultivation methods also lead people to shift to urban centers. Urbanization is a serious problem which needs to be controlled especially in a developing country like Pakistan where inflation rates are high, people live below poverty line, wages are less and political instability exists. It can cause infrastructure deficit, increase urban poverty & unemployment, lead to scarce resources and cause further political imbalance.

1.2 Background of the Topic

Pakistan was formed as a result of religious and cultural differences present in the sub-continent. These differences led to the migration among the two nations causing an uneven distribution of people as well as resources. In the initial years after independence government faced a lot of trouble in allocating resources among the cities and villages according to the total population living. A large number of refugees settled in the big cities because they had no shelter and food to migrate in the rural areas. From 1951-1962 urbanization in the East and West Pakistan experienced the same urban growth rate. Later West Pakistan saw an increase in the urban growth rate as people migrated to the two big cities of the West Karachi and Lahore in search of better job opportunities and adjoining towns merged with the big cities in order to avail the facilities cities had to offer such as electricity, gas energy. These two were the biggest cities where all the political, economic and social activities used to take place. Industrialization in the latter years attracted people from the rural centers to obtain a better lifestyle. Only a small number of refugees made their way to the rural areas where no special development had taken place. In 1981-1998 urban growth declined due to the deteriorating law and order situation. Political instability, partition of East Pakistan was the main reasons for this decline. Urbanization in Pakistan has been taking place since independence. Refugees caused urban growth in the early years, in later years search for better job opportunities and independence from landlords made people migrate to big cities. Lack of government’s policies in developing the rural areas of Pakistan also lead to this shift and lack of proper family planning lead to population increase and improper city boundaries extend the size of the big cities which cause urbanization. Decrease in the agricultural sector over the years have also led to an increase in the urban growth as now people seek jobs in the industrial sector rather than the agricultural side.

1.3 Importance of the Study With Respect To the World

Urbanization is an emerging economic problem as the increase in large cities is not equal to the facilities available for the citizens. Overcrowding in large cities is causing different problems which are difficult to handle by the political parties. Especially for a developing nation expansion of big cities related to the facilities available is a serious problem which needs attention. Urbanization is increasing at an alarming rate in the developing nations these days. Urban population increase in developing countries is double that experienced in the West years ago. Developing nations are less industrialized as compared to the Developed countries; therefore people from rural areas migrate to the urban cities in search for better wage rates. The extent of poverty in the rural areas of the developing nations is negative, which is another factor causing migration. Existence of primate cities in developing nations brings an increase in the population of these cities. In developing and under developed nations urban growth rate is relatively high than developed nations as rural poverty and its causes such as no stable earning patterns, drought & low human capital make people to migrate to big cities in search of better quality of life. Urbanization has been increasing in the world due to the large difference in income and lifestyle between rural and urban cities.. Greater emphasis laid down on the industrial sector by the government is also a big reason why inhabitants or rural areas leave their jobs in the agricultural sector and shift to the industrial sector. Some economists believe that city growth is a symbol of development of any nation as it leads to technological and industrial advancement. But most researchers believe that urbanization is a serious problem which needs to be taken into account immediately. Urbanization needs to be controlled as it can become a serious threat to the economy of any nation especially the developing ones as, they are indulged in other problems at the same time. It can also cause a problem to the people already living in the urban areas along with the people migrating to these areas. The Government has to take steps and regulate urban-rural migration to control the problem of urbanization

1.4 Importance of Study With Respect To Pakistan

Urbanization is a serious problem faced by Pakistan these days. Urbanization in the early years was caused due to the problem of refugees after independence. Industrialization later made people shift to cities in search for better jobs and wage rates. Due to the existence of new technology and better health facilities the rate of births over deaths is high in Pakistan. The poor standard of living in the rural areas make people migrate to big cities to get the basic necessities of life. Mergers of adjoining towns into big cities formally transform the rural areas into urban centers. Over the years there has been an increase in the size of Pakistan’s top ten big cities, areas which were considered small now have been included in the premises of the big cities. Trend of urbanization in Pakistan is going up on an increasing rate. The rural population is expected to be equal to the urban population by the year 2030. Now female labor force participation is also causing urbanization as women from the rural areas are stepping ahead to work in the cities in the informal sector. In Pakistan the main factors causing rural out migration are unequal distribution of resources, lack of basic necessities and poverty. Government over the years has not been successful in implementing positive policies to stop rural out migration by developing the rural areas. The wide gap between the income distribution patterns in the rural urban areas lead to class conflicts which results in migrations causing violent activities. Moreover the mergers of small towns and slum into big cities also give rise to such problems like income disparities and class conflicts. Rapid increase in the size of the city leads to a deterioration in the quality of essential public services, such as, law and order/police, health, education, road works, water supplies, energy supplies etc., this expansions leads to economic, social and administrative problems. The population growth is unevenly distributed in the four provinces and the population of the 10 big cities is increasing over the years which need to be controlled as it is the root cause for the process of urbanization. Pakistani government should take into account some policies to control the problem of urbanization which is a hurdle in the process of development. If this problem is now controlled immediately Pakistan can face numerous challenges in the near future which will be difficult to control then.

1.5 Research Question

Urbanization & Determinants of Urbanization in Pakistan

The scope of the study is why urbanization takes place, what are the various components which give rise to the problem of urbanization.

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

Arif and Hamid (2009) examined the trends in urbanization, city growth and women’s share in rural to urban migration. This study was a joint project of UNFPA and PIDE; financed by UNFPA. Growth of cities is a common practice in the developing nations, including Pakistan. The basic objective of their research was to examine the level of urbanization and urban growth of Pakistan, to analyze the role of migration in the expansion of cities and to over view the quality of life of female immigrants who have moved to big cities in search of better job opportunities for their families. This paper has used both qualitative and quantitative approaches to work on the said objectives. They have used data from previous censuses and information from existing literature. This study has further used both the 2001 Pakistan Socio-Economic Survey (PSES) and Pakistan Rural Household Survey (PRHS) done by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics to study the share of female in rural-urban migration. The quality of life is examined by talking a sample of 50 women and interviewing them about their decisions which led them to the migration. According to the 1998 census, level of urbanization has grown from 17.5% in 1951 to 32.5% in 1998. The nature of urbanization is different in the four provinces. More than 60% of the population of Sindh lives in Karachi, 22% of the total population of Punjab lives in Lahore and other 5 big cities of Punjab, capital of NWFP, Peshawar constitutes of 33% of urban provincial population and the share of Quetta, the capital of Baluchistan is 37%. Arif and Hamid say that there are 3 major components of urban population growth, which include Net-natural increase (increase in the birth rates over death rates due to the growth and improvement in the medical sector). Second component is the rural-urban migration, which is caused due to the attraction and opportunities the big cities have to offer to the rural population, the migration in urban growth was 20.1% in 1972-81 and 1981-98. The migration across provinces is also found in Pakistan. Third component is the Net-Reclassification (the mergers of adjoin areas into big cities). Medium and small cities of Pakistan have outgrown in terms of development over the past 50 years which have led to the increase in size by area of the big cities. Women comprise of a significant figure in the rural urban migration. Permanent migrant women move to urban centers in search for a better quality life for themselves and their children. The second type of migrant women includes those who shift to the city for a temporary time, to obtain full high quality education. Research says that permanent women migrate due to the economic crisis, lack of job opportunities and due to the domestic violence by husband and his family. The main findings of the qualitative research done by interviews of women who have shifted to the big cities reveal that low quality of life, in security in terms of their children’s future, low mentality of their husbands and the feeling of being independent motivated them to migrate. Further the findings of this overall study reveal that due to a fall in the agricultural sector, the rural population is shifting to the big cities, leading to urban growth. Pakistan’s projected urban population is said to be equal to its rural population by 2030, when one out of every two person will be a resident of the big city.

Farooq and Mateen (2005) conducted a study whose main objective was to study and explore the correlation about the socio-economic status and the determinants of internal migration by probit estimation technique. Their research was conducted in Faisalabad city and four tehsils of Faisalabad. Probit model was used to test the hypothesis of their study, the first one being that the poorer economic conditions of the rural area’s lead to more rural out migration. This test showed that 35-50% of the respondents migrated to big cities due to low levels of income, poor economic opportunities and poor quality of life. Land holding is considered as an important economic opportunity in the rural sector of Pakistan. The aspect of the rural economic opportunity hypothesis states that land holdings is an important determinant in the rural urban migration. The negative land holdings show that migration is most possible when people have small land holdings as compared to people who own land more than 13 acres, who do not think of shifting to other big cities. Another hypothesis tested by Farooq and Mateen was that the higher the rate of poverty reduction among the migrants’ families in the rural sector the greater will be individual migration. The result shown against this hypothesis was that people from rural areas migrate mostly because they get attracted to the economic opportunities cities have to offer. Individual migrants who had left their rural areas leaving their families behind have improved their household income by sending remittances which in return reduces their poverty level. Probit model shows that rural out shift is directly linked with the objective of poverty reduction in the urban as well as rural communities. The findings say that unequal distribution of resources, usually land, and poverty leads to rural out migration.

Dao (2002) conducted a study to explain the differences in the urbanization growth rates of the developing nations. He argues that the difference in the actual levels of income between rural urban areas is responsible for the process of migration. He chose to use the ratio of agricultural value added per worker to GDP per capita as a proxy variable for rural wages and assumed that urban wages do not vary due to the influence of politically motivated factors such as minimum wage legislation, labor unions etc. He also hypothesize that a country’s development factors, rate of population growth, poverty, agricultural density all such factors affect the urbanization growth. Empirical tests applied on 3 developing countries showed that agricultural value added per worker relative to per capita GDP is moderately significant in explaining the changes in urbanization growth rates which means that higher agricultural values given per worker does keep rural workers away from the thought of migrating. Development factors such as long constructed roads divided by land area have a positive impact on the urbanization growth rate; increase in population also has a direct effect on the urban growth rate. Impact of population density in agricultural areas does not explain the urbanization growth rates and the effect of the extent of poverty in rural centers on urbanization growth is negative.

Satterwaite (2010) studied the reasons behind the lack and incomplete data available on the urban populations for many under-developed and developing nations and how this incomplete data effects future policies and makes international comparisons difficult. The study says that every nation has its own definition of urbanization and its own ways of conducting a population census. Official definitions say that a city comprising of 20,000 or more inhabitants is an urban city. But if this definition is applied to the developing nations the world’s level of urbanization may change by several points. As a large proportion of such cities live in the rural, underdeveloped areas. Moreover the study tells us that city boundaries are not set according to the universally agreed criteria but are set by the local and national bodies and change over time. Statistics used to judge the environmental performance of the large cities are greatly influenced by the adjoining areas which affects the city boundaries. In many nations census is done after ten years and in most nations’ census are not done in the past 15 years as, censuses are seen as expensive. Satterwaite says that difference in data regarding the urbanization rates of many countries makes the task of making urbanization control policies a difficult task.

Kasarda and Crenshaw (1991) studied the third world urbanization and its determinants and dimensions. They say that third world countries are facing an urban explosion which is somewhat like that faced by the West a century ago, the urban growth faced by the third world nations is double the growth faced by the West. Urbanization problem acts as a barrier in the development phase of the third world countries. Developing nations face a problem of over urbanization which is the increase in the country’s population as compared to the economic activities. Developing nations also face the problem of Urban Primacy which is all political, social, economic activities take place in one big city of the nation which in return attracts people from the rural sector. The existence of improper city boundaries also makes third world countries more underdeveloped and acts as a constraint to future development. Migration in these countries takes place at an increasing rate due to the attractions the big cities have to offer. Moreover the increase in the birth rates over death rates due to the advancement in the medical sector has increased the population which affects the rate of Urbanization. The wage difference and job opportunities also affect the decision of rural urban migration, as the wage rates in the rural sector are much low as compared to the urban sector. The housing facilities provided in the big cities of the third world nations are much better than those in the rural areas. The housing facilities provided in the rural areas of the third world countries are far less below than the criteria stated by the UNO.

Jan, Iqbal and Ifthikharuddin (2008) conducted a study in ten most populous cities of Pakistan to study the trend and growth of urbanization in these big cities and their provinces. They say that province wise distribution of the rural urban population and its projections are important to make forecasts about the future. They have used the weighted matrix approach to make population projections. Sindh province currently has the highest proportion of urban population which is expected to increase by 12% by 2030; Punjab whose current population urbanized is 31.267% is expected to be 50.07% by 2030. The projected urbanization rate of NWFP is 41.36% by 2030 with an increase of approx. 24%. The projected urban percentage of Baluchistan is 45.56% by 2030 showing a rise of 22%. The findings say that the urban population is unevenly distributed in the four provinces. The population growth of the ten big cities is increasing over the past decade which is the gem cause of the problem of urbanization and it should be quickly handled.

CHAPTER 3

METHODOLOGY

Research Type

My research type is quantitative research as a questionnaire was used to collect the data and then it was coded and was formed into a more statistical version

Data Type and Research Period

Research is based on primary data as a questionnaire was floated to collect data. This is because there is no prior data available on the subject matter; hence the questionnaire provided with sufficient material to conduct the research.

Sources of Data

A questionnaire was floated asking general questions regarding the relationship of the dependent variable with the independent ones

Theoretical Framework

Related Definitions & Variables

• Urbanization

A process in which an increasing proportion of an entire population lives in cities or suburbs of cities, areas of population dense enough that residents cannot grow their own food

(www.pbs.org/wgbh/rxforsurvival/glossary.html)

• Over Urbanization

Excessive growth of a country’s urban population relative to economic growth

• Urban Growth

Refers to the rise in the increasing population living in urban areas (Jones 1991)

• Migration

Shifting of people from small villages to big cities in search of better life style and job opportunity

• Urban

Built-up and populated area that includes a municipality and, generally, has a population of 5000 or more (http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/urban.html)

• Rural

Rural population includes persons living in the open country or in towns of less than 2,500 people. It is subdivided in the rural farm population which comprises all rural residents living on farms, and the rural non-farm population which includes the remaining rural population (www.mnforsustain.org/rockefeller_1972_glossary.htm)

• Push factors

Factors responsible for shifting people from rural to urban cities

• Pull factors

Factors responsible for attracting rural population to the urban centers

• Net-Reclassification

Merger of adjoining areas into big cities due to lack of proper city boundaries and the development of these adjoining areas

• Net-Natural Increase

The increase in birth rates over death rates due to better health facilities and rise in population

Population, Working Population and Planned Sample

My sample included the population of Lahore, with a sample size of 50 people. It included people from all spheres of life who had recently migrated to big cities and the people living in adjoining areas of Lahore. People above the age of 25 were capable of filling out my questionnaire

Research Hypothesis

Ho: Migration is an important factor in the process of urbanization and it has an effect on the country’s economy

H1: Migration is not an important factor in the process of urbanization and it does not affect the country’s economy

Ho: Lack of city boundaries lead to the annexure of adjoining small towns into big cities which in return increase the living urban population giving rise to urbanization

H1: Lack of city boundaries do not lead to the annexure of adjoining small towns into big cities which in return increase the living urban population giving rise to urbanization

Ho: Availability of better health facilities in urban cities brings excess of birth rates over death rates

H1: Availability of better health facilities in urban cities do not bring any change in the birth and death rates

Ho: High rates of poverty & poor economic conditions in the rural areas lead to rural out migration

H1: High rates of poverty & poor economic conditions in the rural areas does not lead to rural out migration

Ho: Uncheck urbanization leads to economic, social and administrative problems

H1: Uncheck urbanization leads to economic, social and administrative problems

Ho: Lack of government policies and plans have led to an increase in urbanization

H1: Lack of government policies and plans have led to a decrease in urbanization

• Techniques

After the questionnaire was filled and coding was done, cross tabulations were run to analyze the relationship of the independent variables with the dependent one.

• Data Analysis

The statistical software which was used was SPSS. Cross tabulations to interpret the results gathered by the questionnaire. It provided me with frequency tables to get a better understanding of the collected data.

• Data interpretation

Based on the current analysis the main aim was to understand which variable was the major factor causing urbanization.

CHAPTER 4

RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

4.1 Results & Analysis

Migration

Do you think migration is a serious factor in the process of urbanization? Do you think Migration has a serious effect on the economy of Pakistan in a negative way?

Ho: Migration is an important factor in the process of urbanization and it has an effect on the country’s economy

H1: Migration is not an important factor in the process of urbanization and it does not affect the country’s economy

This cross tabulation talks about migration being an important factor in the process of urbanization and affecting a state’s economy in a negative way. 20 people agree to the fact that migration causes an urbanization which affects the economy of the country. 29 people agreed and said that migration is a major cause in the urbanization problem. 12 people disagree and believe that migration do not have an effect on the country’s economy in a negative way. Total 7 people stay neutral and are of the view that migration is not a key factor in the process of urbanization.

Therefore, we accept our null hypothesis as a majority agrees to the fact that urbanization is caused by migration which has a negative impact on the economy.

Net Reclassification

Do you think lack of city boundaries is a major cause for urbanization? Do you think that there should be a limit on the size of a city?

Ho: Lack of city boundaries lead to the annexure of adjoining small towns into big cities which in return increase the living urban population giving rise to urbanization

H1: Lack of city boundaries do not lead to the annexure of adjoining small towns into big cities which in return increase the living urban population giving rise to urbanization

This cross tabulation talks about lack of city boundaries, and their role in the process of urbanization. 16 people stayed neutral when asked if they considered mergers of small towns and villages a factor in the process of urbanization. 15 people believed that the problem of urbanization was caused due to the annexure of small villages and towns into big cites. However, 14 people disagreed and said that they did not consider this merger to be a factor in the problem of urbanization rather this merger gave the opportunity to the people living in such poor areas to excel, bringing a positive effect on the economy. 16 people agreed that a limit should be set by the government or local authorities to the city boundaries. Whereas, 11 people disagreed in setting up a city boundary.

Thus, we accept our hypotheses as more people agree to the fact that mergers of adjoining towns and slums do cause urbanization and a limit should be set in the city size.

Net Natural Increase

Do you consider the increase in birth rates over death rates a cause for the problem of urbanization? Do you believe that an increase in the population size of Pakistan is a source of the country’s problems?

Ho: Availability of better health facilities in urban cities brings excess of birth rates over death rates

H1: Availability of better health facilities in urban cities do not bring any change in the birth and death rates

This cross tabulation discusses whether increase in population is a source of country’s problems and this increase is due to the excess of birth rates over death rates. 22 people strongly agreed that the population increase in Pakistan is a big source of the country’s problems. 8 people disagreed on the fact that population increase had to do anything with the country’s problems. 20 people said that an excess of birth rates over death rates was a factor in the process of urbanization, as urbanization means expansion of cities, which in this situation is done by an increase in birth rates. 14 people stayed neutral and said they somehow agreed and disagreed to the fact that the excess of births over deaths is a factor of urbanization.

So, we accept our null hypothesis as more people believe population to be a source of a country’s problems and think that the excess of birth rates over death rates allow the cities to expand causing the problem of urbanization.

4.2 Frequency Tables

Q3) Does Poverty act as a major tool in the process of migration?

30 respondents agreed to the fact that poverty is a major factor which causes rural out migration which leads to urbanization.

Q4) Better Lifestyles, health and education facilities, life security, independence attract the rural population towards the urban centers, do you agree?

20 respondents agreed and 19 strongly agreed that better standard of living in the urban centers attracts the rural population which makes them migrate.

Q5) Do you think people in u