Should the government commence the construction of Kalabagh Dam or should the project be abandoned? Kalabagh Dam, one of the largest projects pending in Pakistan, is to be located on river Indus at a site about 100 miles away from the capital city of Pakistan, Islamabad. The project was first conjured by the Government of Pakistan under the regime of Ghulam Muhammad in 1953. However, its project report which intended to inform and convince everyone about its economic and technical feasibility was completed by 1984 during the rule of the military leader Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq. The Kalabagh Dam project was designed with the support of the United Nations Development Program under the supervision of the World Bank. Having a live storage capacity of 6.1 million acre feet of water and producing 2400MW of electricity, Kalabagh Dam appears like the only solution to the water related issues facing Pakistan. Since the inception of this project till today, all four provinces continue to argue about the project’s potential disadvantages and advantages. The benefits of building and running this dam which include obtaining cheap energy and increasing crop yield are tempting; however, after conducting an unbiased cost benefit analysis, it appears that the project’s harmful effects like the displacement of people, damage to the environment, high cost, and no significant control over flood water flow outweigh the few advantages that might be achieved through its construction.
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The first and foremost important purpose for the Kalabagh Dam is considered to be the filling up of the huge gap in the demand and supply of electricity. According to PEPCO, Pakistan Electric Power Company, the total electricity shortfall in Pakistan is 3000 to 4000 MWs; supply from various sources being 11,815 MWs and the demand being 14,904 MWs. Pakistan’s population suffers greatly due to this deficit because it has to face long hours of load shedding also in areas which face unbearably hot summers. Electricity shortage to industries is detrimental to the economy, reducing exports in a country which already faces an alarming negative balance of payments. Not only is industrial load shedding disconcerting, threatening to destabilize the economy drastically if supply is not urgently met, or programs are not put into action immediately, but household shortage of electricity is also upsetting the social and economic infrastructure of the country. A study carried out by the Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) on the development of the power sector found that presently only 65 to 70 percent of 172 million people have access to electricity. The dire need for the demand of electricity to be met, then, cannot be ignored.
The study by the Competition Commission of Pakistan also detailed that the country can generate a total of 40,000 MWs from Hydel resources, but owing to lesser exploitation, only 6500 MWs have been utilized from this energy source. The Kalagbagh Dam can hence be seen as a project that is immediately required in order to extract electricity from Pakistan’s natural resources. However, alternative, less controversial and hence more readily implementable plans to meet energy demands are also prevalent. Various small plans that cater to meeting the demand for electricity cannot be ignored; for instance wind energy projects, nuclear power reactors, coal power projects as well as solar energy utilization projects are also present. Solar energy panels covering several rural areas of Pakistan are under construction right now, with some of them near completion. These projects as a whole are expected to generate electric power of at least 3500 MWs together. Similarly Pakistan has a total of about 185,000 metric ton reserves of coal, while only 3300 metric tons have been exploited as yet for power generation. China has agreed to build several other power plants in Pakistan which are set to complete in the coming years; these plants, including Nandipur (425 MWs, Thermal), Guddu(800 MWs, Thermal) and Neelam-Jhelum(1000 MWs, Hydro), Chashma (1200 MWs, Nuclear) will add more than 3000 MWs of power generating capacity. Therefore Kalabagh dam’s importance as the only source for filling in the energy shortage is diluted; furthermore the heightened debate over it which has been stretching over for many years now stalls the process of implementing more energy generating programs.
At the same time, the Kalabagh Dam project is considered to act as a cheap alternative source of energy. However, this cheap energy advantage in the production of electricity conversely will not benefit the population because WAPDA (Water And Power Development Authority) and KESC (Karachi Electric Supply Company) are both under debt incurring losses of 28% and 40% respectively.(Forex) This means that any cost advantage earned by both of these bodies due to using a relatively cheaper hydro-electric energy source will not be passed down to the customers. Additionally, Pakistan has abundant coal in the Thar reservoir in Sindh from where coal can be extracted and used to produce cheap electricity; foreign investment has been attracted over the years to exploit such reserves providing a feasible alternative to the much disputed Karbala Dam.
The problem posed by diminishing storage capacities of dams due to silting which occurs over the years must be taken into account as well. A study carried out by TAMS-Wallingford in March 1998 explains that the capacity lost in Tarbela and Mangla Dams is approximately equal to the proposed capacity of Kalabagh Dam. The study says that a de-silted Tarbela Dam will yield the same benefit as the Kalabagh Dam; however the cost incurred would be one seventh of that than in the case of the construction of a new dam in net present value terms. Therefore, the Kalabagh Dam will only be a more expensive replacement providing storage capacity that is equal to that provided by the construction of new outlets at Tarbela dam which will enable sediments to flush out from the reservoir and will be far more beneficial as indicated by the study as well. Thus it appears that Kalabagh Dam is merely amongst one of the many options available when it comes to filling the energy gap and not the only solution possible, and certainly not the most viable one.
Additionally, the proposed Kalabagh Dam Project is an expensive one. Pakistan, being the 54th poorest country in the world has recently been struck with a devastating flood which has exacerbated the prevalent poverty among the populace.(Aneki) The total expected cost of the Kalabagh Dam project was estimated to be about 6 billion dollars in 2000.(Khan) Pakistan expects to meet this cost by private funding, government funding, and foreign aid, the latter forming the major portion. However, Pakistan’s lower credibility and high rate of corruption makes it unlikely to be a candidate for private funding. Additionally, 6 billion dollars invested in Kalabagh Dam can rather be spent on the development of smaller projects costing lesser and directed at uplifting and benefiting the poverty struck masses.
However, proponents of the Kalabagh Dam argue that Pakistan is facing an acute water shortage which is negatively affecting its agro-based industries. Pakistan relies heavily on rain water for irrigation and due to irregularity in the rain pattern agriculture output is suffering. Water is not only needed for irrigation purposes but also to increase crop production; the NCS report states: “at present 12.2 million hectares of land are available for double cropping, as against the 4.38 million hectares that are double cropped – clearly water is the constraining factor.” This report tells us about the significance of the water shortage faced in Pakistan. However it needs to be assessed whether the shortage of water really is the problem or if the inefficient use of available water is the actual cause of reduced output. Excess water seepage in Pakistan has resulted in the issues of water logging and salinity which renders fertile land unusable. Rather than building a new dam, if the emphasis is laid on a more efficient use of the available water, the chances for water logging and salinity will lessen, resulting in a more cost efficient and beneficial course of action. The World Commission on Dams reported that lower irrigation efficiency than expected resulted after the construction of the Tarbela Dam, one of the largest dams in Pakistan; it seems unlikely that a new dam can cater to the irrigation problems being faced currently when the efficiency level of the existing dam is poor. Money should instead be spent on devising efficient ways of water distribution to the agricultural land.
A widespread notion amongst the masses is that dams help to prevent floods. It is commonly held to believe that if the Kalabagh dam had been constructed and was running at the time when the flood hit Pakistan, it would have helped in reducing the extent of damage that occurred. This thought was further reinforced when the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Yousaf Raza Gilani, gave a statement in Multan after visiting a flood affected area that “deaths and destruction in the floods could have been averted if the Kalabagh Dam had been built.”(Daily Times). However, a former chairman of the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), Fatehullah Khan Gandapur, who headed IRSA from 1993 to 1998 said, “The dam’s effect on floods would have been contrary to what the prime minister claimed.” Gandapur elaborated on how he thought that Kalabagh dam would have resulted in increased flooding; he also claimed that the dam’s construction would have caused reverse flow in Kabul River, water logging in the entire Peshawar valley and the submersion of the Nowshera district. His statement shows how the idea that the Kalabagh dam could have prevented or reduced the damage of the flood may not be entirely true. Politically driven statements can lead the general public to form an uninformed and uneducated opinion. The flood which began in July 2010 and resulted at one point in one-fifth of Pakistan being under water was estimated to have floodwater of volume approximately equal to 100 Million Acre Feet whereas Kalabagh dam has a capacity to hold just 6 Million Acre Feet of water. It may be indeed troubling to see how the Prime Minister of Pakistan thought that Kalabagh dam with capacity almost 17 times less than the floodwater would have considerably averted the damage caused by the flood.
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Moving on to the environmental aspect, the construction of the Kalabagh dam would disrupt the Delta ecology and the Mangrove forest. Environmentalist Muhammad Tanveer warns that large dams have depleted wetlands in the Indus Delta and destroyed marine life; the effects spread over 300 square kilometers. Mangrove forestation is also suffering; mangroves are salt tolerant trees that grow on river deltas and in coastal areas and are important economically and environmentally. They help clean the soil and water containing excess salt by taking it up through the roots and later excreting it by shedding its leaves. Also Mangroves are a natural habitat to a large number of insects, birds, micro organisms, different mammals as well as snakes; further advantages include protection of coastal areas from cyclones and hurricanes, reducing sedimentation in the sea and acting as a breeding ground for fish and crabs. Mangrove forests have reduced to 100,000 hectares from 3 million hectares and the primary reason Tanveer quotes is the impediment upstream in Indus delta. He goes further and claims that Riverine forests on the banks of the Indus also face extinction. If another large dam is built, forests will have to face the consequences which will eventually upset the balance of the whole ecosystem. Reduced water flow in the River Indus which will result if the Kalabagh dam is constructed will also adversely affect forests and the ecosystem they support.
The cost of land acquisition and resettlement of the displaced people is also necessary in deciding about the construction of the Kalabagh Dam. The newspaper Dawn reported in 2008 that the dam would take up 110,200 acres of land and displace about 120,000 people; the land acquisition and resettlement cost had been estimated to be 68 billion rupees. According to the World Commission on Dams, the Tarbela Dam directly affected 96,000 people from 120 villages while those people indirectly affected were not quantified. Out of those 96,000 people displaced in 1953 with the promise of land at another place, many affectees hold valid allotment letters but have not been given land due to non-availability. If all the affectees of 1953 have not been given lands by now, guaranteeing land for 120,000 more people seems like a flimsy commitment, and would result in greatly increasing the number of the homeless.
In any case, even if all the harmful effects of the project are ignored, the project cannot be carried out without the consent of all the provinces. Without political agreement over this controversial topic, this project will turn into a disastrous one in the history of Pakistan. Building a dam at the cost of national unity does not seem like a reasonable course of action. Although China and India when faced with similar problems went ahead with the projects and did benefit from them, unparalleled political instability is at stake in the case of Pakistan. Since 1953, all four provinces are at a conflict over its construction with Punjab being in its favour while the other three rejecting it, Sindh being the strongest opponent. Officials in other provinces have blamed Punjab of only being concerned in its own water requirement at the cost of harming other provinces. About 11 members of Jiye Sindh Qaumi Mahaz (JSQM) went on a hunger strike demanding the immediate shutdown of the Kalabagh project over which chairman Bashir Qureshi said that his movement is backed by the 40 million people of Sindh. “The Sindh assembly and all political, religious and nationalist parties, irrespective of ideology, have given the thumbs-down to the controversial water projects.” (OneWorld South Asia). This shows that going ahead with the Kalabagh Dam project will jeopardize national unity and thus abandoning the project in favour of another hydro-electric dam or other alternative energy source seems like a much viable option.
Kalabagh Dam project’s cost benefit analysis shows that it is not economically and environmentally feasible. If the project is carried out, not only will national unity be threatened but agricultural land, mangrove forests and in turn the eco system will also be harmed; additionally 120,000 people will be at risk of becoming homeless. Furthermore, the advantages of the Kalabagh Dam can be obtained in other ways which do not have significant costs attached to them. The benefit of increased water storage capacity can be obtained by de-silting the Tarbela and Mangla dams, increased crop yield can be achieved by improving the efficiency with which water is utilized and the energy gap can be filled by completing and starting new small projects and making use of abundant coal reservoir in Thar. The Kalabagh Dam project is not a necessity, it is just one proposal, formed during the process of finding solutions to the problems Pakistan faces, which seems to have taken the shape of an irresolvable dispute. As such then, it is evident that this dam rather than being a viable solution to the energy crisis has instead stalled the urgently required process of exploring Pakistan’s natural resources.
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