What the consumer expects from the hair care category is firstly a shampoo that is suitable for their hair type and provides them with the results they want after using a shampoo such as cleansing of hair and scalp, keeping hair soft and smooth and strong. The consumer expects that the shampoo will make her hair thick, shiny and free from damage.
Secondly, the consumer expects that the shampoo she has chosen should be accompanied by a supplementary product i.e. conditioner which will cater to her need of making her hair soft and moisturized.
Lastly, the consumer has started to expect additional products in terms of mousse, gels, serums, leave-on’s etc. that will cater to her individualized needs and problems. They will help her to change the texture and type of her hair temporarily for example makes her hair straight with a straightening serum when she has frizzy hair.
The consumer expects that all her hair needs are satisfied conveniently and effectively through these off the shelf items instead of having to waste her time using tedious home remedies such as egg and yogurt on her hair.
Another point to mention here is that men have started to expect products that are made especially for them.
Hair Care Category in Pakistan: The hair care category in Pakistan consists of all available solutions for hair care including shampoos, conditioners, leave-on’s, oils, colorants and styling available in retail, wholesale and salon channels.
The Business we are in: UPL hair care category at the moment consists of shampoos and conditioners in beauty, herbal and anti-dandruff segments and also plans to provide styling products in the future.
The Business we want to be in: The hair care category at this moment is providing generic solutions for hair care and the company needs to move towards providing more specialized solutions for all the different hair types and needs. The consumer is evolving and wants more hi-tech ingredients and technologies rather than just natural ingredients. There is more emphasis on beauty and fashion and the consumer wants hair care companies to give them solutions tailor made for their hair type and hair problems for example frizzy hair, straight hair, damaged hair, curly hair, limp hair etc and these solutions to be provided in the form of not only shampoos but more evolved product types such as serums, sprays, gels and masks. UPL also wants to build the male grooming segment through AD brand Clear.
Regions: UPL currently provides its products nationally including urban, suburban, rural and deep rural. They reach consumers through their deep distribution which has penetrated even in deep rural through provision of specialized sku’s like sachets.
Customers & users: Anyone who washes their hair is part of UPL target market. Therefore women, men, children of all ages are the ones UPL wants to provide solutions to. Users can be further divided into heavy, medium and light users and the strategy used is based on what category they fall into.
Channels Used: Hair care category will provide the products to the above consumers through General Trade stores, Family Grocers, Modern Trade Channels, International Trade and OOH which includes salons so as to be available to reach consumers wherever they are. We will not make ourselves available in low contributing channels such as pan kiosks.
What business we will not go in: UPL Hair care will not go in the businesses of loose oils, hair colorants and soap for hair wash because we will provide all solutions to our consumers through our current and future products. For example we will provide the benefit of mustard oil by incorporating mustard oil extract in our shampoo or provide the cleansing properties of soap through clarifying shampoos.
How Competition defines their scope: The competition for UPL hair care includes direct and indirect competitors i.e. anyone who provides hair wash and care solutions. This would therefore include soap (both toilet and laundry) and loose oil providers. Our direct competition includes P&G (H&S and Pantene) and Forvil (Bio Amla).
P&G has the same scope as ours in terms of customers/users and regions, but they look at the market differently by dividing it cleanly into the three categories and ensuring that there is no overlap between the three.
Bio Amla on the other hand has a rural specific focus and channelize their resources on herbal segment. They focus on their rich heritage and providing solutions that will be handed down from generation to generation.
So: How do we create customers? UPL can create customers firstly by creating awareness about the different problems that can plague consumer’s hair. Once they are aware of this, then UPL will provide them will solutions for their specific needs by giving them an entire ‘system’ for their hair i.e. shampoo, conditioner and styling product. It will also create new customers in terms of men who currently use soap or borrow the beauty shampoo from the lady in the house, by providing them a shampoo made just for them.
Hair Care 1
Δ
As per the above charts, UPL is only present in the shampoo and conditioner categories. There are a few players that have just started to emerge in the styling segment such as L’Oreal, Garnier and Toni & Guy. Before they make a mark, and the consumers associate them as the experts on styling, UPL should introduce their own styling range as well.
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As far as the distribution structure goes, the focus is mainly on GT/MT with cosmetic channel and salons not being concentrated upon. The potential of these two channels is therefore not being utilized. Both of these channels contributions’ should be increased with particular focus as to how to develop them, especially salons which is a channel to which you can sell to for their own use and to sell from, to people who visit these salons.
Market Size: Volume (Tons)
Segment
2006
2007
2008
2009
CAGR %
Beauty
6,244
7,204
7,457
8,609
11%
Herbal
5,941
6,466
7,843
8,811
14%
Anti Dandruff
2,923
3,392
3,968
4,477
15%
Conditioners
6,411
6,677
6,853
7,053
3%
Styling
149
154
166
166
4%
Colorants
782
815
849
865
3%
Δ
In 2008, the Herbal category overtook the Beauty Category in volume. This can be attributed to the price increases (7%) taken by players in the beauty category, turning consumers to the herbal shampoos which were at a discount to beauty shampoos.
2007 saw the introduction of a new player in the AD category i.e. Clear shampoo which has propelled growth in the AD segment since.
Conditioner category growth may look small, but this is primarily because of decline in loose oils and natural ingredients as consumers switch towards branded products. The rinse-off branded conditioner market on the other hand is actually growing at 6%.
Styling products usually consist of those that come in through the grey channel and are not actively being marketed therefore hardly any growth. Even the colorants market has not seen any new entrants until now and therefore the slow growth.
Market Size Value (Rs Mn.)
Segment
2006
2007
2008
2009
CAGR %
Beauty
3,368
4,004
4,302
6,335
23%
Herbal
1,605
2,020
2,593
3,335
28%
Anti Dandruff
1,643
2,056
2,452
3,748
32%
Conditioners
9,527
9,036
8,655
8,467
-4%
Styling
103
112
112
124
6%
Colorants
1,008
1,026
1,019
1,038
1%
Δ
The herbal category, even though it has overtaken the beauty category in volume, has not been able to do so in value due to the high price per ml of shampoos in beauty category. However, due to the price increases in Herbal category, the value there has also increased specially in 2009.
The AD category has seen the highest growth in value especially in 2009 due to massive price increases taken by H&S (20%)
The conditioner market is declining due to the decline in loose oils and natural ingredients market; however the rinse off conditioner market is still growing.
The styling and colorants market contribute less than 10% of overall hair care market due to its low tonnage.
Assumptions for Growth for Each Segment
Shampoos: The shampoo market will continue to grow due to consumption building activities in the rural segment. There are still massive amounts of soap being used for hair wash and when it is replaced with shampoo, market will grow further. Within the shampoo category, AD category will see the highest growth due to the further investment behind brand Clear as a shampoo especially for men, followed by Herbal which will be taken as the frontrunner to develop the rural market.
The usership of toilet soap for hair wash in rural is 30% and laundry soap is 50%. It will be herbal category’s (Lifebuoy shampoo’s) job to convert these soap users to shampoo with the natural and herbal proposition, because according to research 46% rural consumers use soap due to the perception that soap cleans hair more thoroughly and that shampoo damages hair. Only 12% say that they cannot afford shampoo. However, if any sensitivity to price exists, it will be overcome by the fact that less dosage of shampoo is needed to replace soap and hence the shampoo bottle will last as much as or more as soap does.
The way forward will be to educate them about benefits of shampoo vs. soap and get them to use Lifebuoy shampoo and the next step will be to move them onto beauty shampoo i.e. Sunsilk which is more profitable. Those in rural who are already using shampoo, for them the job will be to move onto Sunsilk from whatever else they are using. Therefore both beauty and herbal categories have a role to play in rural.
Conditioners: As the market is evolving, two changes are taking place. Firstly, consumers are moving towards branded products and that is going to see the decline of loose oils and natural ingredients (reetha, amla shikakai etc.) usage. Secondly, consumers are starting to become aware of their own specialized needs and want products to be suited to their individual preferences. Therefore second generation hair care products such as rinse off conditioners will be more in demand. This will further be fueled by international and local media.
Styling: With respect to the above, consumers will also start moving towards more evolved products for hair care to cater to their individualized needs and preferences. Also with the entrance of new players such as L’Oreal, Garnier and Toni and Guy, there will be more awareness about these needs and the market will start to get increasingly developed. There will also be high development in trade and channel by these new entrants fuelling the growth even further.
Colorants: Until now this market has been dominated by old players such as Wella, Polycolor, Schwarzkopf, Kalakola etc. But with the recent entry of L’Oreal and Garnier, investment in colorants market by these players will see development in this area.
Market Size Estimation (Volume Tons)
Segment
2010
2011
2012
2013
CAGR %
Beauty
9,349
10,270
11,018
12,125
12%
Herbal
9,607
10,927
11,913
13,938
15%
Anti Dandruff
5,115
5,886
6,656
7,600
14%
Conditioners
7,383
7,855
8,207
8,736
6%
Styling
207
249
290
330
17%
Colorants
881
898
915
961
3%
Δ
The conditioner might look like its showing dismal growth, but what is of interest is the rinse off conditioner category which is actually going to grow at 9% due to heavy investment. The growth number is being dragged down due to negative growth in loose oils and natural ingredients by -5% and -9% respectively. The branded oils category is to grow by 2%.
The AD market will show high growth due to investment in a whole new brand i.e. Clear in the new market for male grooming. Herbal however will still be in the lead as regards absolute volume as it should cater to the soap conversion job in the rural segment. Beauty segment will grow due to new entrants in the segment and increase in consumption in rural.
Market Size Estimation (Value Rs Mn.)
Segment
2010
2011
2012
2013
CAGR %
Beauty
7547
9272
11181
15037
26%
Herbal
3430
4204
4901
5822
19%
Anti Dandruff
4661
5946
7402
9374
26%
Conditioners
8,609
8911
9222
9365
3%
Styling
156
187
218
248
17%
Colorants
1,058
1,078
1,098
1,263
6%
Δ
Any increases in the herbal segment value will be due to volume increases and not price increases. On the other hand, the increase in market value of beauty and AD segment will continue due to higher price per ml along with increases in volume.
The styling category will be a profitable category as it will be sold at a premium to the other formats available. So even small increases in volume will yield higher returns.
Once again looking at the total conditioner growth number would be misleading. To break it up, the area of interest which is rinse off conditioners will actually grow at 16% due to its high price per ml and increase in volume simultaneously whereas the loose oil and natural ingredients market is declining at -5% each.
Competition Growth Matrix
Competition Growth Matrix Conclusion
UPL has a comfortable lead in the beauty segment but it needs to maintain this lead in view of growing competition.
The AD and Herbal categories of UPL are lagging behind P&G and Forvil respectively. Since the AD category is expected to show healthy growth of 12% in the future, UPL needs to maintain at least the market growth rate for its AD brand. Herbal must be invested in specifically in rural areas to convert soap users.
Styling is a niche yet profitable market segment that is expected to grow at a whopping 17% in the future. Opportunities lie for UPL here in development in this category and gaining and market lead.
Conditioning (rinse off) will also be growing at 9%. UPL has already started focusing on this category before any other company and should direct further investment this way to take advantage of the growth.
Through analysis it is evident that Forvil (Bio Amla) is also a formidable competitor in the market where as Unilever’s strategies are based on competition from P&G. In future Bio Amla should be given equal importance in competitive as well as brand strategy formulation.
Product Life Cycle
Product Life Cycle
Segments
Introduction
Growth
Maturity
Beauty
X
Pantene
X
Sunsilk
X
Herbal
X
LifeBuoy
X
Bio Amla
X
Anti Dandruff
X
Head & Shoulders
X
Clear
X
Conditioners
Rinse Off
X
Sunsilk
X
Pantene
X
Loose Oil
X
Natural Ingredients
Branded Oils
X
Styling
X
L’Oreal
X
Toni and Guy
X
Colorants
X
Garnier
X
Kala Kola
X
Δ
The shampoo category is in growth stage, fueled by the rural segment. Penetration and consumption in this segment will keep on increasing as awareness increases through media proliferation. Improvement in distribution will further fuel this trend.
Rinse off conditioners are in the introduction stage. Even though they have been on shelf for awhile, they have just started to be pushed by the companies in terms of communication, and that also one brand until now i.e. Sunsilk.
Since rinse off conditioners are only being pushed in urban, rural for the time being will be using loose oils for conditioning purposes. Natural ingredients are on the decline however as consumers are getting these in the shampoos themselves and also do not have the time anymore that it takes anymore to use them.
Styling segment is in introduction stage and therefore it can be an opportunity for UPL or any other company to gain a first mover advantage there.
There has been no new news in colorants segment until now with the introduction of L’Oreal and Garnier in the market. The advent of these two brands will have an impact on overall category and cause awareness about this segment, leading to growth in off-take of colorants.
Distribution Structure
Δ
For all the 3 segments of shampoo’s, over the next few years , contribution of GT will decrease with most of the consumer traffic moving towards MT and therefore the companies also shifting their volumes towards MT. For Beauty category Salon channel will also gain importance.
Rinse-off conditioners are limited to being sold at MT at this point in time as they are targeted towards higher LSM’s. In the future as they start to be used by lower LSM’s, their contribution in GT will increase.
The biggest jump in contribution of Styling products is in Salon channel. This is where consumers will receive education about the use of styling products and will also be a point of urge purchase. This channel will serve as the foundation for development of this segment, and will lead to increase in contribution of GT as consumers make their repeat purchases from there.
Distribution Shares and Company’s Position
The outlet coverage reflects that of Urban only. The numbers for rural by channel were not available to us, however we did find out that they were much lower. (Outlet coverage in total rural is approximately 60%) Therefore, if the job is to convert soap users in rural, then the outlet coverage must also be increased.
Although urban outlet coverage is healthy, UPL is lacking behind in turnover share as compared to P&G probably due to higher NPS/ton of P&G brands. The turnover share we have taken is in terms of value, and if we compare volume turnover then UPL’s is higher.
In terms of outlet coverage, UPL is at par or more than both P&G and Forvil in all cities except Islamabad. Hence special attention must be paid to this region n the distribution plan.
Top 6 External Trends
Δ
UPL is taking advantage of growth in rural segment with a companywide project to promote its brands in rural. They want to gain a first mover advantage there which will be possible if P&G and Forvil don’t act.
All companies have taken prices increases to be able to hold their margins.
Growth of MT and the increase in demand for bulk products have led UPL, P&G and Forvil to introduce large size bottles (400ml and 700ml) specifically for this channel.
UPL being the first one to focus on conditioners is taking advantage of the trend to provide specialized products for the consumers. P&G although it has a range of styling and conditioning products is not actively promoting them.
Both UPL and P&G are turning towards digital mediums such as the internet and cell phones for advertising. Furthermore, there is an increased use of activations and sales promotions to catch the attention of the increasingly fragmented audience.
Growth of small unknown brands in rural with Re. 1 sachets is threatening the higher priced sachets of UPL, P&G and Forvil. P&G has increased their sachet prices further and are not focusing on them as sku. UPL is trying to counter this by giving a better product at a slightly higher price (Rs. 2 and Rs. 3).
Summary: External Analysis
UPL hair care category at the moment consists of shampoos and conditioners in beauty, herbal and anti-dandruff segments and also plans to provide styling products in the future.
Segments identified in the Hair care market are Shampoo’s (Beauty, Herbal, and AD), Conditioners (Rinse-Off, Branded Oils, Loose Oils, and Natural Ingredients), Styling and Colorants.
In 2008, the Herbal category overtook the Beauty Category in volume. This can be attributed to the price increases (7%) taken by players in the beauty category, turning consumers to the herbal shampoos which were at a discount to beauty shampoos. 2007 saw the introduction of a new player in the AD category i.e. Clear shampoo which has propelled growth in the AD segment since.
The AD category has seen the highest growth in value especially in 2009 due to massive price increases taken by H&S (20%). The conditioner market is declining due to the decline in loose oils and natural ingredients market; however the rinse off conditioner market is still growing.
The shampoo market will continue to grow due to consumption building activities in the rural segment. There are still massive amounts of soap being used for hair wash and when it is replaced with shampoo, market will grow further. Furthermore, the next four years will be more about development of rinse off conditioning and styling.
Consumers are starting to become aware of their own specialized needs and want products to be suited to their individual preferences. Therefore second generation hair care products such as rinse off conditioners will be more in demand.
Styling is a niche yet profitable market segment that is expected to grow at a whopping 17% in the future. Opportunities lie for UPL here in development in this category and gaining and market lead.
Through analysis it is evident that Forvil (Bio Amla) is also a formidable competitor in the market where as Unilever’s strategies are based on competition from P&G. In future Bio Amla should be given equal importance in competitive as well as brand strategy formulation.
For all the 3 segments of shampoo’s, over the next few years , contribution of GT will decrease with most of the consumer traffic moving towards MT and therefore the companies also shifting their volumes towards MT. For Beauty category Salon channel will also gain importance.
UPL is taking advantage of growth in rural segment with a companywide project to promote its brands in rural. They want to gain a first mover advantage there which will be possible if P&G and Forvil don’t act.
Performance Analysis: Lagging Indicators
Lagging Indicators
2007
2008
Sales
+++
+
Total TO
Vol
+++
+
Val
++
++
Growth
Vol
+++
+
Val
+++
++
Market Share
Vol
+
+
Val
+
+
Profit
++
+
ROI
+++
+
GP Margin
+
–
Cost
+
+
Sales: Sales in 2008 did not grow by much due to price increases taken across brands in order to make up for inflationary pressures. In 2009, volume growth was driven by activities in rural and by the price advantage that UPL had due to massive price increases taken by P&G. They key takeout therefore is to let P&G be at a premium to us and secondly keep on developing rural to get volume growth.
Growth: The value growth increased in 2008 because of price increases whereas the volume declined but this was reversed in 2009 for reason of ease in pressure in prices.
Market Share: Shares grew by a constant rate across the years. Again, any increases came from rural, gaining from top two competitors i.e. Forvil and P&G especially in 2009.
GP%: Gross margins were pressured due to increase in raw material, overhead, and supply chain. They were maintained by taking price increases and through optimization of formulations.
Performance Analysis: Leading Indicators
Innovation: The number of product innovation both in terms of re-launches and new variants/SKUs to cater to different consumers needs. In the past 3 years there has been one new brand introduction that is Clear, two brand re-launches and one new variant launch.
Investment in Human Capital: The continuous training of all the employees to make them fully knowledgeable in the area of their performance. This is done by creating employee skill profiles where training needs are identified and future performance standards and objectives are set.
Localization: Switching from foreign supplier of packaging to local ones to decrease cost, lead time and increase flexibility.
Information Technology: The use of Information Technology for quick collaboration with the regional counterparts, suppliers and within different departments of the organization. Integration of ERP, SAP and linking with region and global center.
CSR: Integrating CSR activities into brand portfolio to demonstrate responsible business behavior. This will help to enhance brand equity and image and gain community trust.
Use of Innovative Media: The use of innovative mediums of communication not used by anyone else in this category, for example leveraging the power of social media, PR and search engine optimization to target specific audiences at point of time and point of purchase.
Further analysis on leading indicators is on the following page.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths:
UPL has brands specifically to cater to each segment of the shampoo market and these brands have established brand images.
UPL hair care portfolio have a range of offering for all types of socio economic classes
First Mover advantage with the launch of Sunsilk conditioners
Range of variants catering to a different consumer needs
Versus any layer in the competition UPL holds a very strong distribution network which helps in deep penetration and lowering operation cost.
An AD brand that provides solutions both for Men and Women.
Ability to use UPL clout in advertising media industry
Opportunities:
Leveraging of UPL distribution might to make inroads into rural
Make the most of hair fall need through 3 brands variants
Own conditioners segment by investing in distribution channels and communication
Use innovative mediums to have a targeted focus
LBS to benefit from premium shampoo bottle user in both urban and rural down trading to mid tier brand
Can use Clear to generate growth for male grooming products
To increase share in AD segment through AD specific brand Clear
Weaknesses:
Lifebuoy shampoo has a outdated image in the market due to LB soap
Sunsilk is only a generic beauty shampoo and needs to stand for something more
Clear has not been able to create too large of a dent in its main competitor H&S
Threats:
Low tier and mushroom brands pushing the product in trade channel
Garnier and L’Oreal entering the market targeting both the upper class and the middle class through their brand portfolio
Inflationary pressures may force the consumers to switch to other available options thus resulting in a lower share for all the premium brands.
P&G may start local production of shampoo’s which will result in a decrease in their prices
Counterfeit goods are adversely affecting the sales of branded goods and as counterfeit trade increase the company stands to lose all its brand equity and exclusivity. Besides, it may also result in customer dissatisfaction, which could be detrimental to the company’s image.
Confrontation Matrices
Because Sunsilk has been the first to actively try and establish the conditioners category, they have a high chance of owning this segment both in terms of distribution as well as communication as both customers and consumers will see Sunsilk as the authority on rinse-off conditioners.
All 3 brands have numerous variants and therefore will be able to cater to hair fall needs of all income segments. Hair fall is the latest need to be catered to by all the shampoo brands.
Strong distribution network of UPL can help it to make inroads in rural segment faster and more effectively than other brands.
The male grooming segment is one that is un-catered to at the moment and Clear with its range just for men can fill this gap.
UPL will have an easier time integrating innovative advertising mediums such as PR and social media in its current advertising mix due to the clout it enjoys in advertising industry.
Because Clear still hasn’t been able to pose too much of a threat to number 1 AD player H&S, it will not be able to increase UPL share in AD segment. The brand needs to start doing much better before it can grab share from H&S and become an AD brand of equal measure.
Inflation should not hit UPL too hard because users can downgrade within the UPL portfolio from Clear and Sunsilk to Lifebuoy Shampoo and similarly from competitor premium brands like H&S and Pantene. Furthermore, because UPL has such a portfolio that caters to all segments, it will be able to resist price decreases if P&G were to start local production and resist entry of L’Oreal and Garnier.
UPL’s strong distribution network may also help it to resist growth of mushroom br
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