It is remarkable to say that population studies weren’t that popular prior to the Second World War. People weren’t concerned about how a population grows. In fact their evolving population was considered a mathematical research rather than a demographic one. After the Second World War though, demography has become a well developed discipline introducing to the post war populations may information regarding their change/evolution.
Various studies show that after the First demographic transition, between the 1946 and 1964, women were more likely to have numerous children. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) had an extremely great increase and populations have grown by approximately a 2%. Unfortunately, after that period, things had changed and the total fertility rate had declined dramatically.
So, do couples actually want to expand their family names? Do they really want to have a baby under these conditions and way of nowadays living? Population growth is one of the most important issues demographers have to deal with, within their careers, making them extremely concerned that we might have a nice probability to become extinct as a race.
Many theories and studies are published every year, in journals, books and in various types of report showing that low fertility is a potential problem for the population growth, societies and even individual families.
Having that in mind and doing my own personal research based on the reasons causing this phenomenon, I came across the following article that influenced me and raised lots of questions in my mind as an active society member: “When people respond to lower mortality rates by having smaller families, economies change fundamentally, usually for the better. As the fertility rate falls, the number of working-age adults’ creeps up relative to the rest of the population, laying the foundation for the so-called “demographic dividend” (The Economist, ‘fertility decline, the demographic dividend, poverty and inequality. Demography and Inequality’) .
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AS the article regards, having a low fertility rate creates a more satisfying economic living. This phenomenon actually affects the Italian population. It is noteworthy that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) throughout the years in Italy has become one of the lowest fertility rates among Western European countries. TFR has declined from 2.45 to 1.63 (OECD ‘Low participation countries’). 1,63 is a value well below the initial 2.45 one, provoking a population decrease.
Many reasons such as social, political, economic, psychological as well environmental, are responsible for Italian young adult generations to maintain the fertility levels offensive. In this essay I will discuss the reasons causing low fertility rates in Italy.
Main Body:
To understand how people became aware of the low fertility situation, we have to explain the Demographic Transition theory. With Demographic transition theory we mean the industrialization progress. We define the change from a pre-industrialized establishment, of high rates of mortality and fertility to a post-industrialized one, with both fertility and mortality rates low.
In 1929 a famous English demographer, Warren Thompson, developed a theory that distinguishes 3 different types of countries based on their population growth rates:
Group A: The countries with falling rates of increase facing a strong population decline.
Group C: The countries which neither birth nor death rates were controlled, also known as Malthusian.
Group B: The countries with the imaginary population growth. In these countries, the death rates were increasing rapidly while the birth rates remained constant. At a first place the death rates increase provokes an illusion that the population is growing. Within the years though, because of the fixed birth rates, the population actually has decreased.( Dudley Kirk (1996): Demographic Transition Theory, Population Studies: A Journal of Demography, 50:3, 361-387)
It is not a surprise that the Italian population is part of the second group (Group B). In the early 90’s Italy and other European countries had a fertility decline to significantly lower levels, known as one of the lowest-low-fertility countries. In the following graph we can see the Italian fertility rate going. It illustrates a slight increase from the 50’s until the 65’and a significant fertility decrease from the 70’s until today: C:UsersxanthisDesktopMSC Social StatsUnd.pop.changeessay1 articlesUntitled.png
Source: Country Profiles WFR2009 (Italian Part).
Nevertheless, the question remains unanswered: Why fertility declined in the first place?
The idea of new industrial societies, undoubtedly introduced the small family belief. With technological development, new skills were needed and as a result new opportunities for getting different jobs appeared. Obviously, to be up to date with the technology improvement, education has become of crucial importance and new economic roles appeared for women as well. As a result women became independent from childbearing while high child-rearing costs were introduced.
By the time, industrial and technology improvements created a fundamental decline, -within the young adult’s Italian population -, of motivation to subjugate. Fairly enough the young adults are not motivated since having a child nowadays causes lots difficulties to a couple. Despite the fact that childbearing is one of the most important and positive experience of a couple’s life, young adults cannot afford it. It seems that everything is moving around the economic status of a couple, since taking a birth decision is highly related with the economic income and employment. Female employment in Italy is generally low even for-part time workers. Most of the Italian women have as a first option to leave the labor market after having a baby rather than combine the child caring with their jobs. That incompatibility of labor force participation and childbearing is created due to non flexible labor markets. The employed Italian females have to deal with the following problems in a family centered society such as in Italy: Society is organized in a way that suits more the male adults. In fact scarce child rearing facilities exist because of the above philosophy. It is believed that in a family the bread-winner is the male. As a matter of fact, the care of a child is by law considered a woman’s responsibility.
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Furthermore, mothers don’t have any state support for a new child and working, while having a child violates the social norm. Another problem that it may sound a bit old-school, also affect women’s labor force participation. Women have a double workload as they also do most of the household work. Most of the men decide to move from their parental house when they have to move in with their partners. They do not experience their selves the opportunity to leave alone and take care of their own place, so as a result they do not know how to behave properly with house works (Demographic patterns from the 1960’s in France, Italy, Spain and Portugal, A review.(Rydell, Ingrid, presented at seminar at Institute for Future Studies: October 2002,Dalla Zuanna 2001).
This economic uncertainty in early adulthood, delays the process of leaving the parental home. Most of the working adults leave home at the age of 25-29 when they feel, barely, independent economically. Italian families encourage the late departure from the family house because of these economic conditions. This late departure has a direct effect on fertility since leaving your household in a late age means that probably the marriage age will be delayed as well and so a shorter time interval it can be used for childbearing.
Whereas to lots of sexually transmitted diseases the pharmaceutical/chemistry section has raised and created new methods that help young adults avoid unwanted pregnancies. The separation of sex from childbearing is caused exactly by the use of these methods, the contraceptive ones which contribute to low fertility levels.
Ageing is one of the most important reasons causing the reduction of population increase. As I stated before, based on Warren Thompson’s theory, Italy is included in the Group B countries. Younger people may want to downsize the welfare state given the increasing challenges involved in supporting the old population. Due to fewer young adults, a large proportion of older voters exist and so there are no changes in the system. Labor force productivity is also affected by ageing. Having small numbers of young adult workers, older ones cannot be replaced and as a result productivity of work force becomes weak.
Conclusions:
As seen, in this piece of essay, low fertility may be a strong problem for the population growth and create lots of disadvantages. This argument has 2 schools of thoughts. Many argue that if population growth existed, and remained increasing then lots of benefits would have affected the population. In example, large number populations support a larger number of people who are free to talk and express their ideas. More people brainstorm helping the world progress within technology, science and belief. In addition, larger numbers create a generic diversity. Diversity is particularly important, while learning about diseases and disorders. Work force also may be affected. Large number of workers can decline dramatically the unemployment rate since having a large number of workers creates opportunities for new working roles and places.
Furthermore, extending the housing market, so that more young people could set up a home would probably increase young adult’s fertility rates. Also population growth control could reduce poverty. It is notable to say that extremely large populated places are victims of higher numbers of poverty. While a population grows, more demands are being asked by many and as a result they will have to depend on state benefits in order to survive.
This in turn puts further effort on resources. Controlling population growth may result a positive factor since resources would be spread evenly.
On the other hand, as others argue, low fertility and ageing may be viewed in a positive way. A smaller population means less pressure to support. Fewer houses, roads, bridges and buildings would cause less money to spend for their maintenance and in that way government can spend money on other, less urgent, aspect, in example children education. Having fewer kids, the educational investment per child becomes larger and as a further result the labor force productivity will increase.
Moreover, some argue that less and old people provide better environmental living. Older people consume less damaging energy for the environment. In fact having a smaller population gases, air pollution and oil of the well known destructive issues of the environment can be less damaging. Fewer people help in saving the earth. It also helps in decreasing carbon dioxide (co2) and other gasses. Additionally, small population may keep some countries survive. Customs and traditions may be kept alive while interacting in small number populations.
Concluding when a country has too many wastes, there would be not enough space to store the others. Since there are more people, the resources would not be enough for those people. Many believe that resources should be divided equally between the people of a population.
When a disease attacks a country with a big population, probabilities are higher for an easy spread of it.
My personal opinion is that low fertility is a potential problem for the general population growth. Generations must change and evolve. Surely having smaller populations has lots of benefits but it has a huge disadvantage, smaller populations are more controlled by the government. Over the years I believe that next generations will be more comfortable as a whole than the previous ones. Today’s children are richer in things and education than their parents were as youngsters and today’s children’s children would be more comfortable than nowadays ones. It is always evolving for the better.
Concluding, I couldn’t agree more with the following statement that I found in an article: ‘Demography is too important to be left to demographers’ (Dudley Kirk (96): Demographic Transition Theory, Population Studies: A Journal of Demography, 50:3, 361-387). Populations must be aware of that situation and reproduce man kind.
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